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Conference Championship prop bets: A lock for Burrow

There's only three NFL playoff games left, but that's plenty of time to get your prop bets in for Burrow, Hurts, and Purdy this weekend.

The Conference Championships promise great football this weekend, even if they also mark only three games left before the end of the season (four if you count the Pro Bowl, if you really want to). My prop bet suggestions for this week include love for Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts, cautious optimism for Brock Purdy, and an electric number for football’s most charming meathead.

Joe Burrow OVER 22.5 pass competitions (-110)

It’s no secret that the Cincinnati Bengals have owned the Kansas City Chiefs in their three most recent meetings. One came at the end of the Chiefs’ 2021 playoff run in the AFC Championship Game. But that was probably the worst game of Joe Burrow’s three career games against the Chiefs and the only one he went under the total yardage prop for this game of 273.5 yards. 

And that led me to realize that, despite their hot streak and run through the playoffs, Burrow’s passing yardage props are going under more often than not. Despite leading his team to a second-straight deep playoff run, Burrow has eclipsed this total only thrice during the Bengals’ previous ten games. 

This is not to say that Burrow doesn’t play well against the Chiefs, but instead seems to favor surgical precision to big plays. To me, this suggests more “low-impact” plays, eventually resulting in a ton of attempts and completions. 

Last weekend Burrow squeaked over this total with 23 competitions against the Bills. Burrow has now gone over this total in five straight games and six of his previous seven. Additionally, Burrow has yet to pass for fewer than 23 completions against this team in his career and topped out with 30 in Week 17 of last season. He may not play spectacularly, but he doesn’t have to to hit this prop. 

Travis Kelce OVER 75.5 receiving yards (-110)

There are some things you just can’t argue with in life, and Travis Kelce being one of the best tight ends in history is one such stance. Hell, I’d go so far as to say he’s one of the best pass-catchers this game has ever seen at any position. 

Kelce was the only tight end in the league to finish the regular season north of 1,000 yards (1,338). Additionally, he was the only player in his position with double-digit touchdown catches (12) and triple-digit receptions (110). He is averaging almost 80 yards receiving per game (79.77) and has put up some awe-inspiring numbers recently. 

Kelce came one catch away from tying the single-game playoff reception record with 14 against the Jaguars in the divisional round. Even with Mahomes hobbled, Kelce shined as only he could with 98 yards and two touchdowns. 

It almost doesn’t matter what the Bengals do—Kelce will get his. If you play him man to man, he will overpower and out-hustle. In zone coverage, forget about it. Kelce will carve you up. Just last week, he had five catches for 41 yards and a touchdown in zone coverage. 

Kelce failed to go over this total in the Chiefs’ loss to the Bengals earlier in the year. But I’m not willing to bet against him turning this defense on its head and flirting with triple digits for the second time in the playoffs. 

Brock Purdy UNDER 0.5 interceptions (+120)

Brock Purdy will not allow a repeat of what happened to him the last time he and Jalen Hurts went head-to-head. If you are unaware, check out the clip below that took place in the Iowa St vs Oklahoma game back in Week 9 of the 2019 College Football season. Brock Purdy’s ISU Cyclones had a shot at upsetting the No. 9 Sooners, but Purdy was intercepted on a two-point conversion with 0:24 seconds left. 

But times have changed, and the 49ers have a much better offense than the Cyclones once did. And I think Purdy’s decision-making skills have significantly grown in the last few years. To prove that point, consider that since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 13, Purdy’s TD/INT rate is 13-4, and his overall record is a flawless 7-0. 

With an interception rate of just 2.4% and three straight games without a pick, I think we will be sitting Purdy with this prop at these odds. The Eagles have an excellent track record of picking off opposing quarterbacks, but I believe Purdy plays it safe here and keeps his turnovers to a minimum. 

Jalen Hurts anytime TD scorer (+115)

Out of all the players still left in the playoffs. Jalen Hurts may be the biggest threat to score with his legs and is undoubtedly the most dangerous QB on the ground. While his 22 passing touchdowns rank him in the middle of the road, Hurts ran for an additional thirteen during the regular season, giving him a dynamic range that few players in NFL history can match.

Hurts wasted no time in the playoffs and scored a rushing TD against the hapless New York Giants in the division round, with 34 yards on nine attempts. It wasn’t Hurts’ most impressive game, but it was the fourth game in his last five that he crossed the goal line. 

After Sunday’s shitshow by the Giants, Hurts now has six rushing touchdowns in his last five games. He also has the second most games with more than one rushing touchdown by any QB in NFL history. 

The 49ers do an excellent job with dual-threat quarterbacks, with just 213 yards and two touchdowns allowed on the ground to quarterbacks this season. But they haven’t played Hurts yet, and despite the odds, I believe this is the most likely bet on this page to cash.