NFL Wild Card Weekend prop bets: Put all your money on Dak
We have a trio of quarterback prop bets to spice up your Wild Card Weekend. We especially think highly of Dak doing what he always does.
Photo credit: Rob Carr, Getty Images
The NFL regular season has ended, and that means we have fewer games to focus on in the hunt for prop betting value. But fewer matchups also mean more time to break each down, and I think I’ve come up with a few solid wagers with that extra time. A trio of signal callers highlights our picks for the Wild Card round. We start with Mr. Relevant Brock Purdy in his first playoff game before moving to a streaking Trevor Lawrence and ending with Dak Prescott in Tampa Bay.
Brock Purdy OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
Do the 49ers qualify as a Cinderella story despite having one of the best records in the NFL and finishing the season on a 10-0 run? With the last pick in the NFL Draft running the offense, I think we still have to consider the 49ers a “feel-good” story, even though they are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
Call me naive, but I don’t think Brock Purdy stumbles with the Seahawks in town.
Wettest 49ers practice of the season happening right now. Over 4 minutes of passing drills, Brock Purdy only let the ball hit the ground once pic.twitter.com/HJhYuUBVnB
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 11, 2023
Seattle is here despite their 25th-ranked scoring defense. The Seahawks average 23.6 PPG allowed and 211.5 yards per game through the air. With a red zone defense that ranks 26th, I like Purdy’s chances to score at least two passing touchdowns on this secondary.
To make this wager even juicier, consider that Purdy has passed for two or more touchdowns in six straight games, most of which were against better defenses than Seattle can muster. With a rookie quarterback at the helm, The 49ers may still crash and burn in the playoffs, but the Seahawks won’t be the team to ground them.
Trevor Lawrence OVER 246.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Jags are on a 5-0 run and fought their asses off to earn their first playoff berth during the Trevor Lawrence era. It took a bit longer than the Jags were hoping for, but Lawrence finally is starting to look like the generational talent Jacksonville was banking on. In the span of two months, Lawrence went from a very inconsistent quarterback to a guy who this team relies on in tight spots.
Trevor Lawrence with 2 minutes left in the game
— Noah (@NoahxThomas) November 28, 2022
During that winning streak, Lawrence went OVER 246.5 passing yards twice, with 318 yards against the Cowboys and 368 against the Titans. He also put up 262 yards in Week 3 against the Chargers in LA. The Jags blew out the Chargers 38-10, and Lawrence had three touchdowns in that game.
While I don’t expect a similar final score this weekend, I am betting that Lawrence comes out and lights up the Chargers’ secondary for the second time this season.
Dak Prescott OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-175)
If you are a Cowboys fan who saw Prescott’s name at the top of this article and thought I was siding with him, I’m sorry to report that is not the case. In fact, I am so against Prescott and the Cowboys that I’m sprinkling a few units on the Bucs and Brady to upset them in the Wild Card round on Sunday night.
Prescott leads the NFL in interceptions despite missing five out of 17 games. That breaks down to 15 interceptions in 11 games, an average of 1.4 picks per start. I am not a mathematician, but 1.4 looks a lot higher of a number than the 0.5 needed to cash this bet.
The film clearly shows the reason for Dak Prescott’s interceptions, and it’s simple:
Lately, his eyes have been way bigger than his arm. #Cowboys @BloggingTheBoys #AchoAnswers pic.twitter.com/RBw4KFz5Nm
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) January 11, 2023
What makes me so confident in this pick is when Prescott’s interception issue became so bad. Things were never good in that department for Prescott in 2022, but he only tossed four picks in the first five weeks of the season for Dallas. Since then, Prescott threw at least one pick in seven-straight starts, including multiple INT games in four of the seven. The Bucs, meanwhile, have one pick of Dak this season and a win over Dallas in Week 1.
Even with every stat in the world going against him, this line is still at 0.5 and not 1.5. I haven’t found a book with that line yet, but I would not be against throwing a few bucks on Prescott to throw 2+ for the fifth time in eight games.
