Super Bowl prop bets: The Chiefs will lean on Pacheco

It’s been a long wait and one hell of a season, but Super Bowl LVII is finally around the corner. With thousands of props available for the NFL’s biggest game, there is a lot to sift through. But I took some of the legwork out of it and would like to present my Super Bowl LVII Prop Betting Guide.

Jalen Hurts anytime TD scorer (-110)

With so much talent on the field, it’s hard to pick just one guy for an anytime TD scorer prop. Hurts is not the bookie’s most likely candidate, but he provides an excellent opportunity to score at better odds than Travis Kelce.

The biggest reason I like Hurts in this spot is that he’s simply gained my trust by being so consistent. Plus, he operates this offense like a fine-tuned machine and seems to have an answer for every hurdle.

Jalen Hurts running the Eagles offense pic.twitter.com/HQfBHBMu19

— Big Oil (@LargePetroleum) November 28, 2022

Hurts has scored in his previous two playoff games and seven of his last nine, including the regular season. Because he has such a good nose for the end zone, Hurts has scored more touchdowns (7) than games he’s played in (6) over the last two months. The math looks good on this prop.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-118)

Isiah Pacheco may not be a household name, but I expect that to change between now and the final whistle of the Super Bowl. Win or lose, the Chiefs’ newest star will shine in the biggest game of his career.

"Brock Purdy's story is amazing. But what if I told you there's a RB who was the 251st pick and the 17th RB taken in last year's Draft who may end up playing the biggest role in the AFC Championship Game?" @Pschrags on why @chiefs RB @isiah_pachecoRB is his man to watch Sunday. pic.twitter.com/Z9z2KksXvs

— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) January 27, 2023

His numbers this season aren’t all that impressive at first glance, with 830 yards on 170 attempts and five touchdowns. But those stats only tell half the story due to Pacheco’s lack of involvement in the offense up until Week 9. So really, we’re looking at his stats for half of a season.

Pacheco went over this total in two of his previous three games and nine of his last twelve. In that span, Pacheco averaged 62.8 yards per game or almost 12 yards more than his expected output in the Super Bowl. And with no one quite knowing what the Chiefs are going to get from an injured Mahomes, the running game may play a key factor for Kansas City.

First scoring play is a PHI TD (+175)

The Eagles and Chiefs are the two best scoring teams in the NFL, each averaging 28.7 PPG. While this suggests we are in for a wild night in Phoenix, for this prop, I want to focus on the very beginning of the game.

The Eagles get going quickly and rank fourth in the NFL in first quarter points scored per game. Even more impressively, the Eagles have nearly doubled that in their previous three games, scoring an average of 10.3 points in the first quarter.

The Eagles scored more points off of drives where they went for it on 4th down than any team in the NFL—or any team *this century.* Nick Sirianni’s aggression is a huge edge in a game where possessing the football means everything. pic.twitter.com/AJEhORTW81

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) February 8, 2023

Hurts has much to do with why the team is so successful early on. But the team does not waste time getting up to speed once the first whistle blows.

The Chiefs’ defense is solid and plays well early on, with an average of just 3.4 points allowed in the first quarter. But I still have faith in the quick start of the Eagles to drive and score a touchdown before the Chiefs know what hit them.

Chiefs OVER 10.5 points in first half (-115)

Between Kelce, JuJu Smith Schuster, Marcus Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Pacheco, and Noah Gray, this may be the best put-together offense we’ve seen in years.

Simulated pressures don't have the same effect on the Chiefs offense as they do on others.

Mahomes doesn't feel heated up at all and is able to pick the route to replace the blitzing Mike Hilton.

Also check out the eyes from the Chiefs OL and how they pass things off. pic.twitter.com/HR0Op3BHat

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 31, 2023

In terms of first-half scoring, the Chiefs rank second only to the Eagles. Not that it matters, because the Eagles could score 100 points in the first half and it wouldn’t affect our chances of beating this prop.

The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl with an average of 15.5 points per game scored in the first half. The average jumps to 18 points when looking at their previous three games. KC scored 13 in the first half against the Bengals last week and 17 against the Jaguars in the Divisional Round. With the Chiefs consistently going OVER 10.5 first-half points and so much on the line, this may be the most overlooked prop on board.

Super Bowl MVP position Tight End (+700)

There is no denying that the Chiefs have the best tight end in the NFL in Travis Kelce, and the Eagles’ Dallas Goedert is no slouch either. While the latter has a slim chance to shine enough to win the MVP, it’s essential to look at all the outs when betting.

But let’s be honest, the reason to risk money on this wager is Kelce.

Flashback to Travis Kelce and Patrick Mahomes getting 4 touchdowns in 1 game. 😂

#Chiefs #SuperBowl pic.twitter.com/rCMX5hDK4u

— In My Mind (@MeAloneInMyMind) January 30, 2023

Right off the bat, yes, I know, no tight end has ever won Super Bowl MVP honors. But there have been ten pass-catchers to hoist the hardware, and we don’t have to look far to find one, as Cooper Kupp won last season with the Los Angeles Rams.

Kelce will be the most impactful pass-catcher on the field this Sunday. He’s had more touchdown catches than playoff starts over the last five seasons, and if Mahomes can get going in any way it will be towards his favorite target.

A $14K same-game parlay

If you are feeling kinky this week, you can add all these to one single bet and craft a killer same-game parlay for Super Bowl LVII.

At the current odds, a $100 wager would pay out $14,406.56. Even if you take out the longshot bet on a TE to win the MVP, you’d still be up $1,713.32 in a $100 bet.